Day 1 :
Keynote Forum
Alexander Trofimov
ISRICA, Russia
Keynote: Helioclimatopathology – The 40th anniversary of interdisciplinary studies in sciences of space, Earth and man
Time : 09:30-09:55
Biography:
Alexander Trofimov has completed his MD (Doctor of Medicine) in 1998 from Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. During many years he was (until 2010) Chief of laboratory of Helioclimatopathology of Scientific Center of Clinical and Experimental Medicine. From 1994 and till now he is the Director of International Scientific Research Institute of Cosmic Anthropoecology. He has 7 patents, published 6 monographs and more than 65 papers in reputed journals.
Abstract:
In 1975, in Novosibirsk, on the basis of Siberian Branch of the Academy of Medical Sciences, academician V.P. Kaznacheev (1924-2014) organized laboratory of helioclimatopathology of ICEM. For a long time (until 2010) it was the only in the USSR, in Russia and in the world academic scientific department, who studied the influence of heliogeophysical events and climate change on human health. The laboratory for the first time in the world has carried out simultaneous investigations in different geographic locations under the state program “The Sun. Climate. Man” in the periods of maximum and minimum solar activity, expedition work in the Arctic (Norilsk, DiÑ…on), in the areas of direct extreme impact of solar corpuscular flows on a man. In the laboratory of helioclimatopathology the hypo-geomagnetic installation, which is the only in the world, has been created and tested. The installation simulates conditions of geomagnetic deprivation and biotropic consequences of the going of a man and mankind into the “open space”- space, unprotected by the magnetic field of the Earth. From 1992 in Spain, Sevilya, after the model demonstration at the World Exhibition “Expo 92” of computer-forecasting technology “Helios” to assess the prenatal formed risks of heliodependent diseases, on the initiative of Dr. J.E. Domingues a new scientific-medical direction “Cosmopathies” occurred and it is successfully developing. In 1994 a new scientific advanced post of Observers (by Carter-Tsiolkovsky)- International SRI of Cosmic Anthropoecology, located now in Novosibirsk Academgorodok, took the baton of heliobiological research, beginning in the XXth century by Russian professor A.L. Chizhevsky. In the Institute, 5 scientific heliobiological expeditions to the Far North, the middle latitudes, the Altai and the tropics have been held during 20 years. The effective non-medicinal helioprotective means, protecting a man from the Sun- induced genetic mutations, decreasing risks of heliodependent diseases, smoothing meteotropic reactions on changes of weather and climate and also reducing the rate of aging, have been developed, patented and tested.
Keynote Forum
Ioannis Michaloudis
Kingdom University, Bahrain
Keynote: Climatic Sculptureality project: Green roofs in Bahrain
Time : 10:45-11:10
Biography:
Ioannis Michaloudis is a researcher and academic internationally acknowledged as one of the leaders in Art & Science and the first ever creator and researcher on the application of the NASA’s nanomaterial silica aerogel in Visual Arts and Design. He has completed his PhD from Paris I, Panthéon-Sorbonne University and Postdoctoral studies from School of Architecture & Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He is the Head of Interior Design in Kingdom University in Bahrain and had exhibited internationally in more than 20 Art & Science exhibitions. He had received the “Fulbright Foundation Award for Greek Artists” and the “Golden Lighthouse” in Alexandria XXIV Biennale of Art, cf.
Abstract:
The Climatic Sculptureality project is an Art & Science research in collaboration with MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Associate Professor Dan Cziczo. This artistic project will examine processes of creating microclimatic conditions inside the diaphanous body of sculptures made off the space technology nanomaterial silica aerogel. The creative venture of the Climatic Sculptureality project will have some scientific and technological applications: • As a Scientific Visualization project on the bio-mimicry of microclimatic conditions and experimentation on greenhouse and climate change phenomena. • On memory and energy storage: We know that silica is a basic component for the fabrication of data storage devices. Silica aerogel could be used on memory and energy storage, as its internal nanoporous surface is enormous. • As the best insulator: a phenomenal energy saver that could be used on climate change issues. Silica aerogels are blue and orange for the same reason sky is blue & orange. And the reasons are Rayleigh & Mie scattering, these optical phenomena results when white light scatters off particles smaller than the wavelengths of light, particles typically of the size 5-20 nm. Aerogels contain nanopores of air that are only a few hundred times larger than atoms. This nanostructure made of silica act as particles that scatter white light and make the aerogel appear blue when the light heats the sculpture and orange when the sculpture is back lighted. So, if you keep a piece of silica aerogel in your hand, it’s like if you have a piece of Gulf sky in between your fingers!
Biography:
Jaime Senabre (1966). Psychologist (UNED). He has extensive postgraduate training, achieving a total of five Masters, including: Master in Occupational Health, Safety and Workplace Risk by Camilo José Cela University of Madrid; Master of Psychopathology and Health, UNED; Master of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, University of Valencia. He is also a Diploma in Psychological Intervention in Emergencies and Disasters, Environmental Consultant, Expert in Human Resources and Criminology. Director and Chairman of the Scientific-Professional Committee of the National Symposium on Forest Fires -SINIF (2008-2015)- and creator of “SINIF Awards”, for Innovation and Technological Research, Prevention and Management Development on Forest Fires Member of: Spanish Society for the Study of Anxiety and Stress, Spanish Association for Clinical Psychology and Psychopathology.
Abstract:
Not Available
Biography:
Cedo Maksimovic’ Research areas: Applied ICT in Fluid Mechanics, Hydraulics, Hydrology, Storm drainage, Urban flood modelling/prediction and risk assessment, BGD-Blue Green infrastructure, Sustainable Rehabilitation of Urban Environmental Systems, Water asset management, Urban stream rehabilitation, River Basin Management and Smart urban water systems.Editor in Chief of URBAN WATER JOURNAL, (ISI) and of Urban Water Book Series published by Taylor and Francis. Published over 420 papers and authored and edited 42 books.
Abstract:
Not Available
- Track 1: Geosciences and Geology
Track 3: Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences
Location: Terra Mitica
Chair
Francois Robert
Muséum MNHN/CNRS, France
Co-Chair
Sergey Samoylenko
Institute of Volcanology and Seimology FEB RAS, Russia
Session Introduction
Sergey B Samoylenko
Russian Academy of Sciences
Russia
Title: On formal classification of volcanic eruption types and regimes based on the similarity theory
Time : 11:30-11:50
Biography:
Sergey B Samoylenko has completed his PhD at the age of 27 years from Yeungnam University (South Korea). He is the senior researcher at Institute of Volcanology and Seimology FEB RAS, Kamchatka, Russia, studying the active volcanism and the dynamics of volcanic eruption. He has published more than 10 papers in reputed journals and has been serving as an editorial board member of repute.
Abstract:
Application of the similarity theory principles and dimentional analysis, supplemented by some orinal approaches, suggests the way to acheve following goals which are significant for understanding and modelling of the volcanic process. 1. To introduce and to define more exactly the formal classification of volcanic eruption types in the same way as it is done for the flow regimes in terms of dimensionless numbers in fluid mechanics. 2. To avoid the necessity of knowing the exact values of physical parameters which are hard or even impossible to measure (viscosity, the conduit size etc.) in modelling the volcanic processes. Instead the few number of nondimentional similarity criteria, specific to volcanology, is suggested to be used. The quanities of similarity criteria could be estimated according to observable qualitative characteristics of the process regime to be modelled. 3. To bring the variety of existing mathematical and physical models of volcanic eruptions to a uniform system. It allows to compare different models and, mostly important, to outline their applicability limits.
Francois Robert
Muséum MNHN/CNRS
France
Title: Oxygen isotopes in 3.0 Gyr.cherts: a record of the oceanic temperature ?
Time : 11:50-12:10
Biography:
Francois Robert is an isotope geochemist specialized in Cosmochemistry, Precambrian sediments and organic geochemistry.
Abstract:
A global cooling of the oceans since 3.5 Gyr is inferred from the continuous record of the coupled 18O/16O and 30Si/28Si isotope ratios (expressed in δ18O and δ30Siunits) in siliceous seawater sediments (cherts) [1-2]. During the past decade, marked advances in this interpretation were made from in-situ analysis at a micrometric spatial resolution. Among the most remarkable findings of this type of analysis is the discovery of a large internal distribution of δ18O (up to 8‰) in the microquartz. This mineral stands for the first recrystallization step of amorphous opal CT precipitated from seawater and, in this respect, should exhibit the best preservedisotope compositions.Such internal δ18O distribution is irreconcilable with a thermal isotope equilibrium between seawater and precipitated silica: large isotope fractionation must have taken place in closed micrometric systems, likely through dissolution-reprecipitation of opal CT during diagenesis.Several petrographical and geochemical criteria wereused to reconstruct the original δ18O of the precipitated silica.These criteria should be regarded as guides to better constrain seawater paleo-temperature reconstructions. Although some Archean microfossil-rich cherts from the Farrel Quartzite (Pilbara Cration /Australia - 3.0 Gyr.) [4] exhibit low δ18O compatible only with a silica precipitation from hot (80°C) hydrothermal fluids,a warm temperature (≥50°C) for the Archean oceans remains the most plausible conjecture to account for the secular isotope variations in cherts.
Gour-Tsyh Yeh
National Central University, Taiwan
Title: Advances in computational models of subsurface media: Past, present and future
Time : 12:10-12:30
Biography:
Not Available
Abstract:
The development of subsurface media models and their applications to real-world problems has evolved significantly since 1970’s. This talk discusses the physical, chemical, biological, and mechanical processes that control the evolution of groundwater quantity, quality, and deformation as well as subsidence. These processes include multiphase flow of arbitrary number of phases, thermal transport, geo-mechanics, reactive transport, and propagation of electro-magnetic waves as well as their interactions and feedbacks with the media. The advances of computational models centre on their increasing design capability to foster these coupling processes: from the simplest one-phase groundwater flow to the most complete aforementioned processes. Widely used models developed by academia, research institutes, government agencies, and private industries will be reviewed in terms of the processes included in the governing equations, types of boundary conditions, discretization methods, computational platform, and users' friendliness. Four computational models developed by the author will be briefed and example problems to groundwater management and remediation will be given.
Ayfer Ozdemir
Middle East Technical University, Turkey
Title: Guney formation oil reservoir rock characterization, Eregli-Ulukisla Basin, Turkey
Time : 12:30-12:50
Biography:
Ayfer Ozdemir is PhD student at the Middle East Technical University, Geodesy and Geographic Ä°nformation Technologies. She is a geological engineer at Republic of Turkey Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs. She is interested in environment, geology, groundwater, GIS, remote sensing and hydrologic and hydrogeologic modelling.
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to demonstrate petroleum reservoir rock properties of Guney formation in Eregli-Ulukisla Basin in Turkey. The Guney formation has typical outcrops of sandstone-shale formation around Guney village in the Eregli-Ulukisla Basin. The permeability-porosity analyses and petrographic examinations were done on the 58 sandstone samples which were compiled from the study area. The porosity values change from 6.44 % to 35.14%, and the permeability values change from 0.2 md to 32 md. The sandstones are medium-worse rounded and poorly sorted according to the petrographic examinations. The porosity-permeability values of samples taken from channel fillings on the study area are high. According to the petrographic examination and porosity-permeability analyses results, The Guney formation represents generally worse-medium grade petroleum reservoir rock properties.
Lia Matchavariani
Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University
Georgia
Title: Ecological aspects of pedogenesis and evaluation of ecosystems in Georgia on the basis of edaphic factors
Time : 12:50-13:10
Biography:
Lia Matchavariani is Professor of Tbilisi State University (TSU), Faculty of Exact & Natural Sciences, Soil Geography Dep., Head of Chair; Director of the Institute “Applied Ecology” at TSU; Chief of Doctoral Program “Applied Ecology”, Bachelor Program “Geography” and co-chief of Master Program “Physical Geography & Environment Sustainable Development” at TSU. She is a Doctor of Science in Geography (Geo-ecology) from TSU (2006); PhD in Agrarian Sciences (Soil Science) from GSAU (1989). She has over 150 publications (Sci. papers, textbooks, monographs, etc.).
Abstract:
Among the main Geo-spheres of the Earth (Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Lithosphere, and Biosphere), the rightful place is occupied by the Pedosphere. All natural and anthropogenic processes, taking place within each ecosystem, are reflected in soils. One of the most important tasks of geographical studies is evaluation of ecosystems’ sensitivity. It allows: To identify the potential and current trends of landscapes; to determine the level of their sustainability to the various natural and anthropogenic impacts; to establish the level of endurance of anthropogenic pressure. Such kind of studies provides an opportunity to create a scientific basis for sustainable environmental management and spatial planning. On the bases of the edaphic factor analysis, the assessment of ecosystem sensitivity was carried out. In addition, some methodological aspects of the evaluation were developed. Along with the geographical factors (surface slope, migration regime, the level of relief dissection), the main edaphic parameters having a huge impact on the sensitivity of the ecosystems are: Density of the parent rocks, structure and texture of soils. Each of these parameters was estimated to sensitivity individually and comprehensively based on GIS and using the method of mathematical statistics, in particular, a way of balancing data. Analysis of Geo-edaphic factors showed that Georgia’s ecosystems differ in sensitivity. Sometimes, one of the indicators has a main role, but in some cases - several indicators together at the same time. The next levels of sensitivity were installed in Georgia’s territory: Highly sensitive, sensitive, medium-sensitive, low-sensitive, and very low-sensitive; as well as the features of territorial distribution of ecosystems’ sensitivity were identified.
Marilú Bouchon Corrales
Instituto del Mar del Peru
Peru
Title: Valuable contribution of the advance monitoring in the fishery management of Peruvian anchovy
Time : 13:50-14:10
Biography:
Mariu Bouchon Corrales is a biology from Ricardo Palma University of Lima. Shi has a Master of Marine Science in Federico Villarreal University Of Lima, Peru. She is specialist in pelagic resources main anchovy and the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events. She has over 20 publishes and she working in IMARPE and at this moment she is the Director of Research on Pelagic Resources.
Abstract:
The Peruvian anchovy (Engraulisringens), is localized in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. This supports the biggest mono-specific fishery around the world; it is probably the best monitored large ecosystem. This important monitoring is used for seeing the state of resources. Fisheries regulations in order to protect the resources and must be in a real time. The Peruvian pelagic fishery monitoring system is characterized by daily frequency and quick advice. The Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE), has seven laboratories along the coast, takes fishery and biological information of Peruvian anchovy in main ports and has a Program of observers on board that monitoring the main anchovy density areas. This information is sent to Pelagic Area which processes, analyzes and evaluates the status of anchovy and publishes a daily report and send advice to the government to the quickly application. The logbooks have improved satellite-based vessel monitoring system (VMS) to register interaction of vessels in a fishing area and registered biological and ocenographically information. Also, they use mobile phones to have a quickly communication and the information is registered in data base IMARSIS. All of these has improved the management the pelagic Peruvian fishery and it’s probably Peru is only place in the world who have a “Adaptative” management strategy with scientific data in quasi-real time and this is related with a fast decision to the satisfactory management of the pelagic resource.
Nuha E Mohamed
Al Neealin University, Sudan
Title: Integrated electrical resistivity tomography and magnetic surveys in a mineralization zone in Erkowit, Red Sea State - Sudan
Time : 14:10-14:30
Biography:
Nuha E Mohamed has completed her PhD in 2007 from FPM-Al Neealin University in Sudan cooperated with the TU-Berlin in Germany. She was the Director of the Geophysics Department at the FPM till 2011. She published more than 10 papers in reputed journals and has been serving as an Editorial Board Member of repute. She was prompted to an Associate Professor in 2012 at the FPM.
Abstract:
The present study focus on integrated geophysical surveys carried out in the mineralization zone in Erkowit region, Eastern Sudan to determine the extensions of the potential ore deposits on the topographically high hilly area and under the cover of alluvium along the nearby wadi and to locate other occurrences if any. The magnetic method (MAG) and the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) were employed for the survey. Eleven traverses were aligned approximately at right angles to the general strike of the rock formations. The disseminated sulfides are located on the alteration shear zone which is composed of granitic and dioritic highly ferruginated rock occupying the southwestern and central parts of the area, this was confirmed using thin and polished sections mineralogical analysis. The magnetic data indicates low magnetic values for wadi sedimentary deposits in its southern part of the area and high anomalies which are suspected as gossans due to magnetite formed during wall rock alteration consequent to mineralization. The significant ERT images define low resistivity zone as traced as sheared zones which may associated with the main loci of ore deposition. The study designates that correlation of magnetic and ERT anomalies with lithology are extremely useful in mineral exploration due to variations in some specific physical properties of rocks.
Stella Kostopoulou
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Greece
Title: Climate change impacts on Mediterranean tourism destinations
Biography:
Stella Kostopoulou is an Assistant Professor in Department of Economics at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
Abstract:
Tourism is an important source of economic growth in the Mediterranean and one of the key industrial sectors for many countries in the region. Being strongly weather dependent, the tourism sector is expected to be particularly affected by climate change within the next decades. The effects of climate change are challenging all industries, but are especially relevant to the long term growth of the tourism industry particularly in Mediterranean summer tourism destinations. Climate change is expected to shift summer tourism patterns, eventually leading to an increase of tourist volume and expenditures in colder countries and fall in warmer countries. The impacts of climate change on summer tourist flows would be entirely due to the much higher temperatures forecasted for the summer, which would make summer tourism destinations less attractive. The relationship between climate change and tourism is expected to have important economic and development implications for many tourism destinations globally. Even though there is a recent surge in academic debate worldwide on climate change and its impacts on tourism, there have been few studies specifying these impacts on the countries of the Mediterranean basin. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the existing literature on the impact of climate change on tourism in the Mediterranean region and to set out an agenda for future research. The paper outlines the conceptual framework of the different types of climate change impacts and discusses how the suitability of the Mediterrannean climate for tourism will change, and how this will affect destinations and tourism flows in the region. The paper aims at setting an agenda for future research concerning the necessity of climate change economic impact studies on Mediterranean summer tourism, related especially to vulnerability issues on a local level.
- Workshop on: Wildland Fires and Climate Change
Location: Terra Mitica
Chair
Jaime Senabre
SINIF, Spain
Session Introduction
Jaime Senabre
SINIF, Spain
Title: Social risk perception and behavior before the possible disasters
Time : 14:40-15:00
Biography:
Jaime Senabre (1966). Psychologist (UNED). He has extensive postgraduate training, achieving a total of five Masters, including: Master in Occupational Health, Safety and Workplace Risk by Camilo José Cela University of Madrid; Master of Psychopathology and Health, UNED; Master of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, University of Valencia. He is also a Diploma in Psychological Intervention in Emergencies and Disasters, Environmental Consultant, Expert in Human Resources and Criminology. Director and Chairman of the Scientific-Professional Committee of the National Symposium on Forest Fires -SINIF (2008-2015)- and creator of “SINIF Awards”, for Innovation and Technological Research, Prevention and Management Development on Forest Fires Member of: Spanish Society for the Study of Anxiety and Stress, Spanish Association for Clinical Psychology and Psychopathology.
Abstract:
One of the reasons that an individual, a community and a society doesn´t act preventively against the probability of a risk is due to the perception people have about the likelihood of that risk and the proximity of their consequences. It can also happen that, while having a full awareness and perception of the probability of the risk, both individual and community and society doesn´t have the necessary resources to prevent or minimize it. A perception and resource availability must be added a factor, the will. The same risk can have different interpretations and meanings and affect health, the environment, property, future generations, etc. From this psychosocial approach to risk, when to assess, interpret and judge a risk we have to take into account a number of quantitative (eg. index of probability and amount of losses) and qualitative factors (eg. involuntary nature of exposure, lack of personal control, uncertainty about the likelihood or consequences of exposure, lack of credibility and trust in the institutions that manage). Also, the perception and the meaning that people can be attributed to the risk will be influenced by different types of beliefs, values and social contexts. On many occasions, low priority is given to some of the dangers related to the environment, which leads many companies to live on a stage of life "latent silent emergencies" which sometimes manifest themselves in varying degrees of threat, occurrence and intensity, reaching in some cases, to acquire the status of disaster, catastrophe or calamity. Human behavior in disasters, in diachronic sense of the incident, passes through three stages: before, during and after. Thus, the perception of risk has to be placed in the temporary time "before". We may be at an apparent dissociation between social risk perception and human behavior to the manifestation of disasters.
Alexander Burwitx Schwezoff
Nitrofirex, Murcia
Spain
Title: DRONES and night time aerial firefighting. The NITROFIREX project
Time : 15:00-15:20
Biography:
Alexander Burwitz Schwezoff is a pilot in the Spanish Air Force since 2000, he is presently posted as a Captain in the 43 Grupo water bomber unit. In over thirteen years he has broadened his national and international experience in fire-fighting operations, logging over 2.500 flight hours and 7.000 water drops over wildfires on the Canadair CL-415/215T. Since 2008, and right from its very beginning, has been part of Nitrofirex. He firmly believes that the future of aerial fire fighting lies in discovering a means of enabling a direct attack on the fire when it is at its weakest.
Abstract:
Nitrofirex is born with the idea of solving the technical barrier between forest fires and night aerial extinguishing applying currently available technologies. Nitrofirex stands for an innovative and globally unique solution that enables active aerial firefighting at nighttime by combining already existing RPAS technology. Here Nitrofirex introduces a completely new RPAS concept consisting in Autonomous Gliders Containers (AGCs) that are able to carry large amounts of extinguishing agent inside their tanks. Once being launched from the rear ramp of any heavy transport aircraft the formation of AGCs autonomously navigate to the fire and drop their extinguishing payload in a coordinated and sequenced manner. Immediately after the high precision release the AGCs climb to their safety altitude, return and land autonomously at the base of operation so as to be prepared for the next run. The application of sophisticated, already operative and mature technology leads to reduce crew risks during operations and significantly improve the operational efficacy and economical efficiency. Paradoxically in the sector of aerial firefighting no modern aeronautic technologies have been implemented up to now, if we compare it to all other sectors of aviation where the innovations have been really impressive. The amount of countries hit by forest fires is numerous. The heavy financial and human losses generate social unease and political concern. The impact on the environment incurs in a direct manner in harm to biodiversity and indirectly with the release of big amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Vicente Caselles Miralles
University of Valencia, Spain
Title: Forestfires, Climatic Change and Remote Sensing
Time : 15:20-15:40
Biography:
Vicente Caselles received the B.Sc., M.Sc., and Ph.D. degrees in physics from the University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain, in 1979, 1980, and 1983, respectively. He is currently Full Professor of Physics of the Earth and Head of the Thermal Remote Sensing Group, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain. He has a 40 years expertise in the physical processes involved in the temperature measurement using remote sensing techniques, which has been documented through 20 books, 25 doctoral theses, 150 papers in international journals, 60 conference papers, and 30 reports. He has collaborated with the European Space Agency as member of the Advisory Group for the Land-Surface Processes and Interactions Mission. He was the Manager of the Spanish Atmosphere and Climate Programme. Dr. Caselles was the Chairman of the Spanish Remote Sensing Society.
Abstract:
Forest fires are one of the main agents involved in the change of structure and function of ecosystems. Remote sensing techniques allow obtaining land surface information and monitoring vast areas affected by fire. In this work we used a set of 5 Land sat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images, of the years 2007-2008, covering an area of forest and shrubs, affected by a fire in the summer of 2001. Two control areas (non-burned) were established, representative of the pre-fire conditions in the burned areas. The simplified two-source model STSEB was applied to elaborate instantaneous energy flux maps, at the time of the satellite over pass. A Bowen station placed in the study site permitted a previous validation of the results. Regarding the energy fluxes the most remarkable is the increasing of more than 150 W m-2 at instantaneous scale, and 40 W m-2 at daily scale, in sensible heat flux, and the decreasing of more than 250 W m-2 (8.8 mm/day) at instantaneous scale, and 60 W m-2 (2.1 mm/day) at daily scale, in actual evapotranspiration, observed in the forested area. In the shrubs area, the fire effect is almost negligible after 6 years, since the vegetation regenerates.
- Track 4: Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Track 6: Global Warming and Environmental Change
Track 10: Effect of Climate Change on Ecosystem
Location: Terra Mitica
Chair
Piret Plink-Bjorklund
Colorado School of Mines, USA
Co-Chair
Xuegong Xu
Peking University, China
Session Introduction
Binita K C
Northeastern University
USA
Title: Climate change vulnerability projection in Georgia
Time : 16:00-16:20
Biography:
Binita K C received her PhD in Geography from the University of Georgia, USA in 2014. She is currently working as a Postdoctoral Research Associate in School of Public Policy and Urban Affairsat Northeastern University, Boston, USA. Her research integrates climatic, spatial, and social components to study the human-environment interaction. She was actively involved in research activities with multiple agencies including National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) Nepal, and US Forest Service (USFS) and is currently involved in modeling the feedbacks of urban heat island effect with socio-economic changes at the Northeastern University.
Abstract:
This study captures climatological, social, and geographic vulnerabilityat the county level, for the state of Georgia in the 2030s (2025-2034). Climate change vulnerability is measured in terms of exposure, and sensitivity. Future exposure is measured as anomalies in projected mean temperature and precipitation compared to the historic baseline (1971-2000) temperature as well as frequency of heat waves and extreme precipitation days using CMIP5 projections. Future sensitivity is measured as social vulnerability, which is derived through cohort component projection, and geographic vulnerability is measured as potential inundation due to future sea level rise. Warmer and dryer conditions, indicated by greater anomalies in mean temperature and precipitation compared to the historical baseline climate, are projected in the metro Atlanta counties as well as in the western part of the state. Extreme precipitation events are expected to occur in the northern counties whereas most heat wave events are projected in the metro Atlanta counties especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Counties in southwest Georgia, known as “Black Belt” counties, and the metro Atlanta counties will emerge as socially and climatologically vulnerable in 2030s. Coastal counties specially, Chatham County, emerged as the most vulnerable after considering the geographic vulnerability.
Piret Plink-Bjorklund
Colorado School of Mines
USA
Title: Intensification of extreme precipitation – ancient archives predict the future?
Time : 16:20-16:40
Biography:
Piret Plink-Björklundhas completed herPhD at the age of 28 years from Göteborg University and postdoctoral studies from University of Wyoming.She is Associate Professor at Colorado School of Mines and leads a research group of 10 PhD students focusing on precipitation signatures of past greenhouse climates and morphodynamics of sedimentary systems.She has published more than 35 papers in reputed journals, and has presented invited talks at numerous universities, industry and international conferences.
Abstract:
Changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather and climate events have profound impact on both human society and the natural environment.Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may already be influencing the intensity of rainfall. Yet, such extreme weather events remain ambiguous to predict, or even determine whether linked to global warming or short-term variability, showing that these climate processes and their drivers are not yet well understood. Extreme precipitation events, where most of the average annual precipitation falls during a few high-intensity events, are in current climate conditions most frequent in the monsoonal and the bordering subtropical zones, linked to the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. A recent review of modern and ancient monsoonal and subtropical river systems shows that such rivers display distinct sedimentary characteristics as a function of frequent extreme precipitation induced high-magnitude floods. More than 80% of water discharge and almost 100% of sediment loadis transmitted during such events, as only the flood discharge is the efficient discharge, able to transport sediment. As a result such river deposits are an archive of high-magnitude floods and thus an archive of extreme precipitation events that induced the floods. Analyses of river deposits from some past greenhouse climatesindicate long-term intensification of extreme precipitation and poleward expansion of monsoon-like precipitation patterns. These data suggest Hadley Cell expansion as a response to global warming, and support the hypothesis that current intensification of extreme precipitation is indeed linked to the anthropogenic global warming.
Xuegong Xu
Peking University
China
Title: Risk assessment of sea level rise in the coastal zone of Tianjin, China
Time : 16:40-17:00
Biography:
Xuegong Xu is the corresponding author of this paper. She has completed her PhD from Peking University in 1993 and is a professor of Peking University now. She has published more than 100 papers in reputed journals.
Abstract:
Global warming and sea level rise are serious issues of coastal zone development. Coastal zone is a vulnerable area with dense population and estates convergency. The study area—Tianjin coastal zone is an important new developmenting area in north China but bears more and more stress facing the risk of sea level rise. As local area, it suffers from relative sea level rise which not only as global warming but also as local land subsidence, both aspects add and form a place with one of highest sea level rise. By using sea level data of tide gauge station and a stochastic dynamic model, combining with wavelet analysis and relative models, sea level rise to 2020 and 2050 are predicted, and extreme storm surge is calculated. Based on the data of precise leveling survey, spatial distribution and variation trend of land subsidence in Tianjin coastal area are predicted using water resource supply and demand balance analysis and subsidence control policy scene setting. According to land use and city plan, risk assessment for sea level rise with storm surge are made. Assessment results show the losses of submerged area in different situation. It will provide scientific basis for regional risk management and adaptive coastal development. This research is financially supported by the NSFC Project (No.40830746 and 41271102).
Muhammet Turkoglu
Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University
Turkey
Title: First bloom record of toxic dinoflagellate Prorocentrum lima (Ehrenberg) F.Stein, 1878 and climate change interactions in the Dardanelles (Turkish Straits Sistem)
Time : 17:00-17:20
Biography:
Muhammet Turkoglu has completed his Ph.D in the 1998 from Ege University, Turkey. Currently, he is an associate professor of Marine Science and Technology Faculty in Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University. His research has involved studies in Aegean Sea, Black Sea, Turkish Straits System including Dardanelles, Sea of Marmara and Bosphorus and Caspian Sea. He has been interested in marine phytoplankton species distribution and ecology especially in coastal habitats and also in harmful algal blooms (HABs). He has nearly 100 scientific studies published by various reputed scientific journals and others.
Abstract:
This investigation focused in daily variations in cell density toxic dinoflagellate Prorocentrum lima between 09 July 2013 and 06 August 2013 in the Dardanelles. The sampling period was excessive bloom period of both dinoflagellates and diatoms. The bloom of toxic dinoflagellate P.lima was recorded as a first time in the Turkish Straits System. During the bloom the cell density of P. lima reached to 2.40 x 106 cells L-1 and exhibited four excessive blooms over 1.0 x 106 cell L-1 during a month. The contribution of P.lima to both Prorocentrum spp. and dinoflagellates reached to 100%, particularly in the intervening period of the excessive bloom time and it was attested by regression (R2=700-800) and correlation findings (R=800-900). Nutrient concentrations were lower than previous concentration levels due to excessive blooms. Concentrations of NO-2+NO-3, PO-34 and SiO4 varied between 0.20 and 0.78 µM (average: 0.44 ± 0.17 µM), 0.08 and 0.18 µM (average: 0.12 ± 0.03 µM) and 0.25 and 0.65 µM (average: 0.41 ± 0.09 µM) respectively. During the bloom, nutrient ratios (N:P, Si:P and Si:N) were more different than Redfield ratios due to eutrophication and ratios of N:P, Si:P and Si:N varied between 1.57 and 7.50 (average: 4.04 ± 1.74), 1.67 and 6.50 (average: 3.79 ± 1.24) and 0.51 and 1.95 (average: 1.04 ± 0.36). Chlorophll a concentration varied between 1.57 and 8.52 mg L-1 (average: 4.82 ± 2.29 mg L-1) in the bloom period. During the bloom temperature, salinity, pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) levels were approximately constant and changed from 24.0 to 25.0 oC (average: 24.7 ± 0.44 oC), from 21.4 to 23.5 ppt (average: 22.9 ± 0.49 ppt), from 8.01 to 8.54 (average: 8.23 ± 0.15) and from 6.05 to 8.65 mg L-1 (average: 7.35 ± 0.60 mg L-1). The compact bloom of P. Lima, such as excessive blooms of other dinoflagellates and diatoms, was associated not only with eutrophication, but also with climate change interactions.
Ibrahim M Metwally
Zagazig University, Egypt
Title: Earth contraction and global Earth temperatures
Time : 17:20-17:40
Biography:
Ibrahim M Metwally is a Registered Consultant Engineer, who completed his master and PhD from CSU, USA in 1985 and 1990 respectively. He is a top-notch and innovative leader with more than 30 years in higher education and industrial sectors, dynamic leader and team builder, consistently motivating others towards success, persistent and flexible approach to the mutually beneficial achievement of work plans and personal goals of staff, and creative problem solving and first-class analytical skills. He has extensive original research in civil engineering (35 Published Papers) with 7 new theories in soil liquefaction and earth science, more than 20 TV programs, with outstanding productivity both as a civil engineering consultant and as a Professor, and high capability of handling complex and difficult problems and situations. He has high personal integrity, and is able to relate to and create trust in others with different cultural backgrounds.
Abstract:
Volcanism outcomes themselves may have a minor effect on global earth atmosphere. However, Volcanism activities have a great indirect influence on global earth temperature, through its effect on earth size and its orbit around the sun. Within the framework of continuum mechanics, this paper presents the effect of volcanism activities on earth size that can be driven mathematically and proof earth contraction. This contraction is the major contributors for global earth temperature changes, as contraction changes both the distance of earth to sun and the inclination angel of sun rays on earth. A hundred million cubic kilometers of volcano outcomes would decrease the radius of earth by less than 2 km approximately. As the volcanoes outcomes increase gradually, contraction accumulates gradually over time to be significant. That would result in very slowly but continuous changes in the position of the earth relative to the sun that has the most dominating influence on the changing climate of earth. The paper discusses the relationship between volcanoes outcomes and global earth temperature changes.