Day 1 :
Keynote Forum
Yoshinori Hayakawa
Toin University of Yokohama, Japan
Keynote: Abnormal weather by hot seawater mainly due to thermal pollution by power plants
Time : 09:30 Am-10:15 Am
Biography:
Yoshinori HAYAKAWA has been engaged in medical physics. He developed simultaneous neutron monitoring system for Boron-Neutron-Capture-Therapy. He has measured first in the world acoustic pulse generated in the body of treated patient by pulsed proton beam. The phenomenon may be used to clinical purpose. He has developed Computer Numerals, New Abacus Numerals, and Universal Literacy Alphabet for improving basic education to reduce poverty. He has proposed and published an original research article of Proposal of Artificial Pandemics by Infectious Attenuated Live Influenza Vaccine to reduce victims of new influenza. Many of them can be observed in youtube without payment.
Abstract:
The temperature rise of seawater is the main course of abnormal weather.
Waste heat of power plants raise the seawater reported by governmental office of USA.
First, the sea surface temperature increased 0.077°C in ten years averaged over world oceans. 1.0x103 is written 1.0E3.
The total Waste heat is 1.1E21J
The total world ocean amount down to 100 meters is 3.6E19 kg.
The specific heat of water is 4.2kJ/kg=4.2E3J/kg.
From above data the seawater temperature rise is 0.07°C per 10 years. Total world oceans water down to 100meters is 3.6E19 kg.
Seawater temperature rise is 7.2 E-3°C per year, that is 0.07°C per ten years, approximately equal to the reported value.
Below is the detail of calculation.
From 1901 through 2015, Sea surface temperature rose at an average rate of 0.13°F (0.07°C) per decade. The total waste energy lost by waste heat is 1.1E21J.
PWR and BWR have an overall efficiency of about 33%. For a modern coal fired plant the efficiency is about 40%.1.0TWh=1.0E10x1.0J/sx3600s=3.6E13J
Coal and Coal products 9523,531TWh
Natural gas 5543,363TWh
Oil products 842,835TWh
Biofuels and waste 528,052TWh
Subtotal 16437781TWh Waste heat (0.60/0.40)x16437781x3.6E13J=8.9E20J
Nuclear 2571,365TWh
Waste heat (0.67/0.33)x2571,365x3.6E13=1.9E20J
Total Waste heat =1.1E21J
1000 kg/m3=1.0E3kg/(mxmxm))
Specific heat of water
4.2kJ/kg=4.2E3J/kg
The total area of the oceans is 3.6E8 square kilometers. Ocean water weight down to 100m is 3.6E19 kg.
Temperature rise by waste heat during one year 1.1E21J/(3.6E19 kgx4.2E3J/kg)=7.2 E-3°C
in 10 years 0.072°C temperature rise of seawater down to 100m deep.
Keynote Forum
Justin Sentian
Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia
Keynote: Surface ozone in Malaysia under climate change scenarios
Biography:
Justin Sentian is an Atmospheric Scientist and currently heading the Climate Change Research Group at the Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, UMS. He has obtained his PhD in Atmospheric Science at Lancaster University (UK). Much of his research and publication contributions are in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate change, air quality, meteorology, environmental pollution modeling as well as environmental impact assessment. His latest research is on Stratospheric-Tropospheric Ozone Exchange in Antarctica, which he has spent more than a month during 2018/19 austral summer at Great Wall Station, Antarctica.
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of climate change on future surface ozone (O3) over Malaysian region under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios. The weather research forecast–community multiscale air quality (WRF-CMAQ) modelling system has been applied for the baseline period (year 2010) and the future day period (years 2050 and 2100) during the winter and summer monsoons. The simulation of WRF agrees well with observation datasets in simulating the surface temperature. However, precipitation did not perform well. The future projection revealed that the surface temperature increased across the Malaysian region, while patterns of total precipitation were varied. The study also identified model deficiencies of WRF-CMAQ in simulating air quality in the Malaysian region. RCP simulations reproduced the observed and reanalysis dataset for O3 mixing ratio with moderate values in statistical analysis. Compared with the present scenario, a small decrease in the O3 concentration was found under RCP8.5 scenario, while a large decrease was found for the RCP4.5 scenario except for the winter monsoon. In 2100, O3 reduced by 1.4% (15.2%) and 4.5% (25.8%) during winter (summer) monsoons under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Overall, the decrease in O3 was found to be affected by climate change, as well as changes in ozone oxidants such as hydroxyl radical (OH), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and acid nitric (HNO3). Further tightening control measures on anthropogenic emissions to reduce future surface ozone may be unnecessary, since the future ozone mixing ratio did not exceed the Malaysia standard. However, continuous monitoring is vital to ensure efficient air quality management in Malaysia
- Earthscience | Climate Change | Maine Science
Location: lisbon,Portugal
Chair
Yoshinori Hayakawa
Toin University of Yokohama, Japan 11:20
Session Introduction
Tihomir Frangen
Croatian Geological Survey, Croatia
Title: GDi Ensemble FloodSmart-IT platform for flood prevention and mitigation of harmful environmental impact
Biography:
Tihomir Frangen has completed his PhD at the Zagreb University in 2013. He is employed in the Croatian Geological Survey as a Hydrogeologist, dealing mostly with Karst, but also has interests in Engineering Geology, GIS and Remote Sensing. He has published more than 20 papers.
Abstract:
European Environment Agency (EEA) reported Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods between 1998 and 2009, which have caused 1,126 deaths, displacement of about half a million people and at least €52 billion in insured economic losses (Source: EEA). Consequently, the EU Flood Directive has been in force since November 2007. Which main purpose is to establish a framework for flood risk assessment and management to reduce the negative consequences of floods on human health, economic activity, cultural heritage and the environment? Time for action on climate change came, so GDi d.o.o. and Croatian Geological Survey, as a partner, are working on the project implementation – Development of an IT platform for Flood Prevention and Mitigation of Harmful Environmental Impact - GDi Ensemble FloodSmart (October 2017–March 2020). Resulting with GDi Ensemble FloodSmart, a complete real-time Flood Risk Management and real-time Flood Protection System based on Esri ArcGIS platform. A single web portal consolidates all relevant decision-making information for organizations responsible for the implementation of flood protection and rescue systems. It enables integration of flood hazards and flood prevention activates, ahead of, and after flood events. The portal also allows clear, precise and easily understood information to be presented to both executives and public.
Biography:
Yoshinori Hayakawa has been engaged in Medical Physics. He developed simultaneous neutron monitoring system for Boron-Neutron-Capture-Therapy. He has measured first in the world acoustic pulse generated in the body of treated patient by pulsed proton beam. The phenomenon may be used to clinical purpose. He has developed Computer Numerals, New Abacus Numerals, and Universal Literacy Alphabet for improving basic education to reduce poverty. He has proposed and published an original research article of Proposal of Artificial Pandemics by Infectious Attenuated Live Influenza Vaccine to reduce victims of new influenza. Many of them can be observed in youtube without payment.
Abstract:
Global warming by carbon dioxide is insisted by the IPCC. But according to observations in Hawaii, the variations of the temperature are ahead and the variations of the carbon dioxide follow. The insistence that increase in carbon dioxide concentration in air promotes global warming is wrong. On the contrary, Little Ice Age like Maunder minimum of 17 century is approaching shown by decrease of sunspots (Grand Solar Minimum). The decrease means the decrease of solar magnetic field that protects galaxy cosmic rays. The increase in the galactic cosmic rays in the air generates clouds and reflects sunlight to cool the earth. Agriculture will be damaged and a certain scientist estimates two milliard people will be starved to death. Even world war three may occur. Measures against it will be: Accumulate many foods in Antarctic; develop more convenient long time accumulation methods than canned or bottled foods; construct plant factories using LED lights or high pressure sodium lamps. The electric power necessary for plant factories is to be created by space-based solar power generation as remaining underground fuels are to be lost within approximately 200 years. Plant factories in large scale to produce even crops are possible if sufficient electric power for lamps is supplied. Basic technological problems of space-based solar power generation are already solved. The power should be sent by microwave to penetrate clouds and rain. The launching of rockets requires much fuel. But space catapults now in development will reduce necessary energies.
Aaron Yair
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Title: Opposite eco-geomorphological responses to climatic changes, during the Upper Pleistocene and Holocene periods, in the South-Eastern Mediterranean area
Biography:
Aaron Yair is an emeritus professor in department of geography at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel. He completed his studies from Université de Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is mainly interested in the study of geomorphic processes in arid and semiarid environments. In 1972 he established, in the Negev Highlands, the long-term Sede Boqer Research Station, characteristic of an arid rocky area. Research in the station is highly interdisciplinary and covers the main following aspects: Rainfall-runoff relationships; soil moisture; effect of runoff water redistribution on vegetation and soil development; effect of bioturbation on erosion rates and soil development; chemical composition of rainwater and runoff water; isotopic composition of rainfall and runoff and processes of groundwater recharge. Extrapolation of data obtained into larger spatial and temporal scales under changing climatic conditions. Effects of loess and sand accumulation on hydrological processes. In 1988 he established (in the frame of the Minerva Arid Ecosystems Research Centre) the Nizzana Research Site. The site represents a sandy ecosystem. Topics under study cover the following aspects: Monitoring the effect of a biological topsoil crust on infiltration, runoff frequency and rates. Recovery rates of the biological topsoil crust following disturbance. Use of remote sensing techniques for the monitoring of biological crust recovery. Monitoring of water percolation and movement in a longitudinal dune. Eolian and fluvial interactions in the evolution of the Nizzana sand field. Dating of eolian and fluvial stages.
Abstract:
Dryland areas are usually regarded as highly sensitive to climatic changes. A positive relationship between average annual rainfall and environmental variables is often assumed for such areas. However, the global climatological models fail to address an important issue. With decreasing annual rainfall water resources may be highly dependent on surface properties and rainfall characteristics at a rainstorm level, which greatly influence the degree to which rainwater will percolate, or will be transformed into runoff, thereby significantly affecting the spatial redistribution of water resources. In other words, a climate change in dryland areas would be expected to have differential hydrological effects in a sandy area, a rocky area or in loess covered area. Differential hydrological effects would also be expected within each of the areas listed above. The Northern Negev desert offers unique conditions for the study of the possible effects, along a rainfall gradient, under changing surface conditions. Two case studies are considered. The first deals with the environmental effects of loess penetration into the area during a wet climatic phase. The second considers the differential effects of biological. Topsoil crusts on the water regime in a dry sandy area. Data obtained draw attention to the complex relationships between average annual rainfall, surface properties, water resources and ecosystem structure. In both areas considered the increase in the average annual rainfall had negative effects on the water resources and related ecological properties.
Justin Sentian
Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia
Title: Climate change and sea level rise impacts on turtle nesting vulnerability at Turtle Island Park, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
Biography:
Justin Sentian is an Atmospheric Scientist and currently heading the Climate Change Research Group at the Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, UMS. He has obtained his PhD in Atmospheric Science at Lancaster University (UK). Much of his research and publication contributions are in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate change, air quality, meteorology, environmental pollution modeling as well as environmental impact assessment. His latest research is on Stratospheric-Tropospheric Ozone Exchange in Antarctica, which he has spent more than a month during 2018/19 austral summer at Great Wall Station, Antarctica.
Abstract:
Studies have shown that turtle’s life histories are sensitive to fluctuating environmental conditions, and therefore, there is a significant concern on turtle survival under the threat of climate change. It is indeed the case for turtle conservation at Turtle Island Park (TIP), Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia. The investigation of sea-level rise under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on turtle nesting was carried out at TIP to assess the climate change vulnerability and potential risk on turtle nesting. In each climate scenario, the vulnerability of the turtle nesting in the three islands within TIP was evaluated based on several criteria such as the number of turtle landing, turtle nesting area, inundated nesting area, and the number of turtle species. The highest projected sea-level rise was 0.95 m under RCP8.5 at the end of the century, which has resulted in a total loss of nesting area of about 1.33 acres or about 15%. In both climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), sea-level rises were projected to increase, and Selingan Island, which is the largest island within TIP was found the most vulnerable due to climate change. Thus, the impending threat of sea-level rise to the future turtle nesting requires further assessment and evaluation of appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategy options in term of their effectiveness, technical feasibility, financial feasibility, and any associated risk to ensure turtle nesting sustainability.
Epifanio Vaccaro
The Natural History Museum, UK
Title: The ocean bottom deposit collection at the Natural History Museum, London as a tool to investigate the effects of climate change
Biography:
Epifanio Vaccaro has completed his MSc in Geological Sciences at Palermo University in 2005, Italy, and started working at The Natural History Museum in London from 2009 covering several roles including: Petrology Curator, Mineral Curator and Researcher. In 2017, he has obtained his PhD from The Open University on the Physical and Chemical Properties of Primitive Chondrites. Currently he is working in the Petrology Curator at The Natural History Museum in London.
Abstract:
The Natural History Museum (NHM) in London is home to an estimated 80 million items dating back as far as 1,753. The NHM is recognized as a world leading centre of natural history collections and research. Many of the collections have great historical as well as scientific value, such as the ocean bottom deposit (OBD) collection. This includes the Sir John Murray, HMS Challenger expedition (1872-76) collections as well as samples from about 40,000 sea bed locations around the world. It is the most comprehensive British collection of seabed samples and cores but also includes approximately 65% from the Atlantic Ocean, 20% from the Pacific Ocean and 15% from the Indian Ocean. The OBD collection is invaluable for studies of the ocean and ocean floor, including research looking at global change, climatic warming, ocean acidification and marine pollution. This historical collection has a large number of calcifying organisms that provide a benchmark for changes in carbonate production in marine ecosystems through time. A project led by museum researchers has compared the calcification capability of today’s plankton species with their counterparts from pre-and early-industrial time. This has been based on plankton tows collected during historical expeditions and has provided new insights into anthropogenic climate change. Recent work has also investigated the foraminiferal content of benthic samples from the collection and shown a method for selecting samples that show a late 19th century baseline for the marine environment.
Jean Novais
University of BrasÃlia, Brazil
Title: Spectral mixture model and Sentinel-2A time-series for digital soil mapping in Brazilian Cerrado (savanna)
Biography:
Jean J Novais is specialist in Geotechnologies and has been Master’s degree in Agronomy, concluded in 2017, in the University of Brasília on the Faculty of Agronomy and Veterinary Medicine where he also started the PhD in the same year. Currently, he performs his research activities in the Geoprocessing and Pedomorphology Laboratory, where he has published papers in important journals.
Abstract:
One of the main functions of soil is that of climate regulation on Earth. In-depth knowledge about this natural resource is indispensable for management and conservation actions. One way to know the soil is through Digital Soil Mapping (DSM). Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate a short Sentinel-2A (S-2A) time-series using topsoil reflectance spectra and multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA) for DSM. The study area has about 152 Km2; it is located in Central Brazil and developed over metasedimentary rocks. We collected 19 representative soil samples using toposequence method to physical, chemical and spectroscopic analyzes. So, we proceeded to the classification to the third categorical level of the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB - FAO/UN). The similar spectra soils were grouped in clustering analysis by Euclidean distance. After, we acquired a surface reflectance time-series of 16 S-2A images (Level 2A) from 2015 to 2019 during the dry season. We applied a bare soil mask in all simple images which were used to calculate the pixel median and to produce a synthetic image of reflectance surface. Finally, the soil spectra (endmembers) were applied as inputs on the MESMA algorithm which got to model 98.7% with low global RMSE (0.81%) and high global fraction (60%). MESMA-derived DSM reached a Kappa coefficient of 0.73, indicating a good agreement with the field-verification sites. The short S-2A time-series evaluation showed that has high potential for DSM which tends to improve with data availability over time.
Tihomir Frangen
Croatian Geological Survey, Croatia
Title: GDi Ensemble FloodSmart-IT platform for flood prevention and mitigation of harmful environmental impact
Biography:
Tihomir Frangen has completed his PhD at the Zagreb University in 2013. He is employed in the Croatian Geological Survey as a Hydrogeologist, dealing mostly with Karst, but also has interests in Engineering Geology, GIS and Remote Sensing. He has published more than 20 papers.
Abstract:
European Environment Agency (EEA) reported Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods between 1998 and 2009, which have caused 1,126 deaths, displacement of about half a million people and at least €52 billion in insured economic losses (Source: EEA). Consequently, the EU Flood Directive has been in force since November 2007. Which main purpose is to establish a framework for flood risk assessment and management to reduce the negative consequences of floods on human health, economic activity, cultural heritage and the environment? Time for action on climate change came, so GDi d.o.o. and Croatian Geological Survey, as a partner, are working on the project implementation – Development of an IT platform for Flood Prevention and Mitigation of Harmful Environmental Impact - GDi Ensemble FloodSmart (October 2017–March 2020). Resulting with GDi Ensemble FloodSmart, a complete real-time Flood Risk Management and real-time Flood Protection System based on Esri ArcGIS platform. A single web portal consolidates all relevant decision-making information for organizations responsible for the implementation of flood protection and rescue systems. It enables integration of flood hazards and flood prevention activates, ahead of, and after flood events. The portal also allows clear, precise and easily understood information to be presented to both executives and public.
Zofia Rzepecka
University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland
Title: Comparison of changes in groundwater level obtained on the basis of direct measurements in wells with results obtained from GRACE measurements and NOAH model in Poland
Biography:
Zofia Rzepecka has completed her PhD from the Agricultural and Technical Academy in Olsztyn, Poland. Her Postdoctoral studies were conducted at the University of Warmia and Mazury. She is a Full Professor in the field of Geodesy. She is interested in GNSS and GRACE Applications. She has published more 100 papers in worldwide journals.
Abstract:
In the era of global climate change, monitoring of water resources, including groundwater, is of fundamental importance for nature, agriculture, economy and society. The purpose of this presentation is to check compliance of changes in groundwater level obtained from direct measurements in wells with groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies calculated using GRACE observations in Poland. Data from the Global Land Data Assimilation (GLDAS, in the form of soil moisture (SM) and snow water equivalence (SWE), were used to convert GRACE observations into series of GWS changes. It turned out that very high consistency occurs between GRACE observations and changes in water level in wells, while the GWS series obtained from GRACE and GLDAS do not provide adequate compatibility. Further research presented in the presentation was devoted to attempts to explain this phenomenon. In addition, time series of GRACE, GLDAS and GWS observations were analysed for changes occurring in them.